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we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the polls showed engel was ahead by significant margins. what happened was at the end of the day when you looked at the scorecard, latinos went in favor to harry reid 9-10. that was because sharon engel's campaign was so egregious when it came to the latino votes. pollsters feel that la tyne notices won't turn out, and a lot of working class latinos are cell phones. this is the dreary part of polling. you often miss a big swath of potential when it comes to voting to the new voter, which is not only latinos but women and youth. what we're going to s
we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the...
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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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nevada, all the polls have the president lead bug it is close. same thing in wisconsin. president is ahead in all the polls except rasmussen, who has the race tied at 49. florida, all the policy out this week has obama leading romney, but very close. and in the commonwealth, up 5 points but cbs has the president up by two. north carolina, rasmussen has romney up by 6 and survey usa has the governor leading by 5. new hampshire, new england college has obama up by 6 over mitt romney. last week rasmussen had romney up by 2. and nbc has the president up by 6 points. got all that? joining us now from boston, david. he directs polling. >> he want to run it down from your point of view. you have canvassed the whole country, know what's going on. ohio, how do you see it? >> i see it really close. if you look at the last four polls, it's one point. 1 through 8 the poll was average four to five points. what we look at is the head-to-head number. the last three consecutive polls, excluding the two you mentioned were at 48. that's a sign of vulnerability. obviously you have seven ca
nevada, all the polls have the president lead bug it is close. same thing in wisconsin. president is ahead in all the polls except rasmussen, who has the race tied at 49. florida, all the policy out this week has obama leading romney, but very close. and in the commonwealth, up 5 points but cbs has the president up by two. north carolina, rasmussen has romney up by 6 and survey usa has the governor leading by 5. new hampshire, new england college has obama up by 6 over mitt romney. last week...
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it's not just nationally, you look at states like nevada where the white vote is smaller why? because the latino vote is nearly 20% of the vote in the state of nevada. the president gets 21%. you can't win. the white vote smaller, why? latino vote, nearly 20% of the vote in the state of nevada. the president gets 71%. can't win. you can't win. the on other side can't win. in colorado, much more of a white vote. 78%. and latinos, 14%. and the president getting 75%. let me shift walls, one more minute of your time. i want to show you this. nevada used to be a swing state in presidential politics, colorado used to be republican, and florida a swing state in presidential politics, if democrats keep getting 66%, 70% of the latino vote, watch this. the darker the area, the higher the latino population, so in navy, colorado, and new mexico, it's almost game over. in florida, still waiting for the final results. latino vote critical to the president's lead. if you look at the state of texas in the long term, and if the republicans don't solve this, we might be talking about texas as a
it's not just nationally, you look at states like nevada where the white vote is smaller why? because the latino vote is nearly 20% of the vote in the state of nevada. the president gets 21%. you can't win. the white vote smaller, why? latino vote, nearly 20% of the vote in the state of nevada. the president gets 71%. can't win. you can't win. the on other side can't win. in colorado, much more of a white vote. 78%. and latinos, 14%. and the president getting 75%. let me shift walls, one more...
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if i give him nevada, iowa and wisconsin, 259/206. what does governor romney have to do? he must win the state of florida. tonight the democrats say we think we're still in play. give them truth sear rum, which ones are you likely to lose, they put florida on the list. the obama operation says watch us turn out the vote tomorrow. let's assume it stays with its normal republican dna, we'll keep it there. virginia is a must win for governor romney. we are wired on the ground, we can do it, the key will be the northern virginia suburbs. for the sake of argument, i know democrats are getting mad at me, i'm going to give it to governor romney. if we do that, this could be a decisive state. for the sake of argument, the obama campaign says we have this state. watch what happens tomorrow, especially in evangelical areas. i'm going to this hypothetical to show you how close this would be. it would leave us only ohio and new hampshire. you only get 4 in new hampshire, 18 in ohio. under any scenario, i could switch a few of these in plausible ways. under any scenario, this becomes
if i give him nevada, iowa and wisconsin, 259/206. what does governor romney have to do? he must win the state of florida. tonight the democrats say we think we're still in play. give them truth sear rum, which ones are you likely to lose, they put florida on the list. the obama operation says watch us turn out the vote tomorrow. let's assume it stays with its normal republican dna, we'll keep it there. virginia is a must win for governor romney. we are wired on the ground, we can do it, the...
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Nov 5, 2012
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in would argue that mash -- michigan and nevada should be leaning obama before last week. we have a very close election. and it is going to be decided on election night with -- with a bunch of potential surprises. >> chris: you have a white board. >> think about this. on the third of november, 2008, president obamma was at or above 50% in 7 of the 13 states that year. in those same state this is year, on same date, 4 years later, he is 50%, not above, but 50% in just two, wisconsin and nev dismef and wisconsin, he is only at 50% because there is 1 pole, an outliwer an 8-point lead. we have gone from cruise into victory in 2008, to a tight, tight, tight race in 2012. >> chris: lanlast question. what do you make of romney going to pennsylvania today? what do you make of obama with last-minute ad buys in florida and virginia? who's got in wind at the back? who is serious? hois bluffing? >> they are all serious and they are not bluffing. president obama has difficulty in florida and virginia two, states where the real clear politics average goes to romney. and pennsylvania has
in would argue that mash -- michigan and nevada should be leaning obama before last week. we have a very close election. and it is going to be decided on election night with -- with a bunch of potential surprises. >> chris: you have a white board. >> think about this. on the third of november, 2008, president obamma was at or above 50% in 7 of the 13 states that year. in those same state this is year, on same date, 4 years later, he is 50%, not above, but 50% in just two, wisconsin...
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Nov 11, 2012
11/12
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bush did so well in, colorado, iowas, your nevadas new mexico. romney did didn't play out there. >> to give you a sense of the magnitude, 8% of the hispanics in 2008 and 10% this year and romney's share went from, republican share went to 27 from 31. >> and the romney campaign thought they needed 37% of that hispanic vote for the numbers to win and they got 27%, the arithmetic on the latino vote is just brutal and obvious, they have to do something about that. >> paul: quickly? >> i want today make one more point about the type of campaign at that romney ran. focused on the economy and wanted to make the obama economy, but he woke up wednesday morning and probably saw an exit poll figure that had him devastated for people, 50% of the electorate still thought this economy was george w. bush's fault. it's astonishing. >> it's astonishing. >> and one of the failures, not making a distinction in the campaign, the theme explanation why he would be different than george w. bush. when we come back, the soul searching begins as republicans face another f
bush did so well in, colorado, iowas, your nevadas new mexico. romney did didn't play out there. >> to give you a sense of the magnitude, 8% of the hispanics in 2008 and 10% this year and romney's share went from, republican share went to 27 from 31. >> and the romney campaign thought they needed 37% of that hispanic vote for the numbers to win and they got 27%, the arithmetic on the latino vote is just brutal and obvious, they have to do something about that. >> paul:...
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Nov 6, 2012
11/12
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i will give you nevada as your best of the battleground states. what's your worst? what are you most worried about? >> well, you know, john, somebody was quoted yesterday as saying that's like choosing between our children. >> so choose. >> we are tied or -- i'm not going to do that. we're tied or ahead in every single battleground state. certainly some of them are tighter than others. north carolina is extremely tight. but we're pleased with where we are going into election day. we have advantage on the early vote. we've done significant work with voter registration in that state. we're close in florida. again, significant advantage on early vote. and done a lot of work on voter registration. >> can i run that through the universal political translator and say you're most worried about north carolina and florida? >> those are your words. >> let me bring in david gergen. he's also got a question. >> stephanie, good to see you. tell us what three things we should be looking for tomorrow night as a sense of which way it's going. what are you going to be looking for? >
i will give you nevada as your best of the battleground states. what's your worst? what are you most worried about? >> well, you know, john, somebody was quoted yesterday as saying that's like choosing between our children. >> so choose. >> we are tied or -- i'm not going to do that. we're tied or ahead in every single battleground state. certainly some of them are tighter than others. north carolina is extremely tight. but we're pleased with where we are going into election...
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Nov 6, 2012
11/12
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he could also get nevada or iowa. that's one, two, three, four, five, six states he would have to win if he loses ohio. >> how many of those six states is he behind today according to the poll? >> well, of course he's -- it's tied in virginia. he's behind in wisconsin. tied in new hampshire. he's ahead in north carolina. nevada and iowa, which would be crucial to that last piece, tied in colorado. >> which is why the governor is going to ohio today. he's going to northern ohio, cleveland, and then he's going to western pennsylvania, which is covered in southern ohio. so the pennsylvania visit is not so much about pennsylvania. it is a little bit about it, but it's about getting both media markets at the top and bottom of ohio. >> how common is it to campaign on election day and how effective is it? >> remember al gore in 2000. al gore went all around this country campaigning at the very last minute. george w. bush took that day off and the day before largely off. al gore's late surge made that a very close election, a
he could also get nevada or iowa. that's one, two, three, four, five, six states he would have to win if he loses ohio. >> how many of those six states is he behind today according to the poll? >> well, of course he's -- it's tied in virginia. he's behind in wisconsin. tied in new hampshire. he's ahead in north carolina. nevada and iowa, which would be crucial to that last piece, tied in colorado. >> which is why the governor is going to ohio today. he's going to northern...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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the polls but it will be very important to watch what hispanics do in curial states like colorado, nevada and florida. it is no surprise that those states are being bombarded by political ads en espanol. historically, latinos tend to vote more for democrats than republicans and that won't change, presuming president barack obama will get the majority of the hispanic vote 3 to 1. but if mitt romney can get more than a third of the latino vote, it will be a very, very close election. the most important issues for latinos are jobs, education and health care, but immigration defines who is with us and who is against us. immigration is personal. president barack obama wants to legalize millions of undocumented immigrants. mitt romney says he doesn't want an amnesty even though he talks about a permanent solution. jobs might not be as important as immigration. we'll see that on tuesday, david. . >> jorge, thank you. >>> tuesday night, diane sawyer, george stephanopoulos and our times square election headquarters. jake tapper with the president, i'll be with mitt romney. the entire powerhouse po
the polls but it will be very important to watch what hispanics do in curial states like colorado, nevada and florida. it is no surprise that those states are being bombarded by political ads en espanol. historically, latinos tend to vote more for democrats than republicans and that won't change, presuming president barack obama will get the majority of the hispanic vote 3 to 1. but if mitt romney can get more than a third of the latino vote, it will be a very, very close election. the most...
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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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nevada the ground game, harry reid's political machine, i think obama is going to win, nevada. >> greta: you are from wisconsin, john, and you were just there. >> i was. everywhere you go you meet people who voted for obama the last time and are going to vote for mitt romney this time around. you have a lot of people switching sides over there. the scott walker recall energized republicans and brought independents into the republican party who liked what scott walker was doing. there are couple of problems facing mitt romney. one is that the recall electorate that gave scott walker a 7 point margin of victory supported obama. there is still a problem there of 500,000 voters who came out in 2008 who didn't come out out in the recall. people think those are obama voters and if they come out that could spell bad news. >> greta: bart star now endorsed governor romney and in wisconsin he is a big deal. does is it have any impact? >> he is a big deal. but president obama had charles woodson the other day. if aaron rodgers had been there on the ground probably a 20 point holdout for mitt romne
nevada the ground game, harry reid's political machine, i think obama is going to win, nevada. >> greta: you are from wisconsin, john, and you were just there. >> i was. everywhere you go you meet people who voted for obama the last time and are going to vote for mitt romney this time around. you have a lot of people switching sides over there. the scott walker recall energized republicans and brought independents into the republican party who liked what scott walker was doing....
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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odd and interesting about this is the three states with the worst unemployment levels, california, nevada and new jersey are solidly democratic. the whole republican argument that this administration has made things worse clearly is not working in those states where things are, in fact, the worst. in other states like nebraska, kansas, north dakota where there's extremely low employment because of shale gas and agriculture, republicans are winning. it's an interesting dynamic in the election in that respect. the real challenge for any new administrati administration, whether it's president obama or governor romney, is we treat it as a national problem and we have huge varieties between states and education levels and gender. >> let's talk about the psyc psychology of it. are people looking at the numbers and measures how they feel? whatever the case, they're measures how they feel at their home right now. >> absolutely. it's a good media story to talk about the number that changes month to month. oh, my god the unemployment rate is 7.9%. do i have a job that pays enough? do i have several
odd and interesting about this is the three states with the worst unemployment levels, california, nevada and new jersey are solidly democratic. the whole republican argument that this administration has made things worse clearly is not working in those states where things are, in fact, the worst. in other states like nebraska, kansas, north dakota where there's extremely low employment because of shale gas and agriculture, republicans are winning. it's an interesting dynamic in the election in...
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Nov 5, 2012
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people say nevada, the president won nevada by 12% four years ago. this time his early voting is smaller. there is a need to win by 12%. he only needs to win by one vote. >> when you talk about you're going through the swing states, really it's the state of ohio. is that true all roads go through ohio for the romney campaign? >> yeah. it's really critical there. you look at the different scenarios you need again for mitt romney to take ohio, there are scenarios that we'll show you. he can win without ohio. but that takes everything else. that means he has to get florida. he has to get everything else basically that is leaning or tossup to make that happen. >> what i thought was interesting, we were talking about this earlier, i read an article where ana is credited on it. it's a latino vote in ohio that you never talk about. this election is so close that we are talking about latinos in ohio. and how they could potentially impact this vote. >> i say is that if we really want to get immigration done, some of us have to take it for the cause, put on co
people say nevada, the president won nevada by 12% four years ago. this time his early voting is smaller. there is a need to win by 12%. he only needs to win by one vote. >> when you talk about you're going through the swing states, really it's the state of ohio. is that true all roads go through ohio for the romney campaign? >> yeah. it's really critical there. you look at the different scenarios you need again for mitt romney to take ohio, there are scenarios that we'll show you....
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Nov 8, 2012
11/12
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ana werner, cbs news, las vegas, nevada. >> even though program won the electoral vote and popular vote in tuesday's election there's still one state that superin the air. the race too close to call in florida right now, the president has a lead of about 47,000 votes, if he wins florida he would add 29 electoral votes to his tally. another closely watched race in florida hasn't been decided. alan west a favor of the tea party is trailing patrick murphy by 2,500 votes. west claims there were voting irregularities and want as recounts. up next your thursday morning winter and the indianapolis colts bring out the clippers to support their ailing coach. online outfit piccolo headphones buy now broadway show megapixels place to sleep little roadster war and peace deep sea diving ninja app hipster glasses 5% cash back sign up to get 5% everywhere online through december. only from discover. . >>> here's a look at the weather in some cities around the country. morning showers in new york, 44 degrees. sunshine in miami, 71. same deal in chicago 52 degrees. mostly sunny in dallas, 78 and sun in
ana werner, cbs news, las vegas, nevada. >> even though program won the electoral vote and popular vote in tuesday's election there's still one state that superin the air. the race too close to call in florida right now, the president has a lead of about 47,000 votes, if he wins florida he would add 29 electoral votes to his tally. another closely watched race in florida hasn't been decided. alan west a favor of the tea party is trailing patrick murphy by 2,500 votes. west claims there...
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Nov 6, 2012
11/12
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iowand nevada have been put away. i don't think new hampshire and wisconsin have. but i think that's reflect in that poll. the second that's occurred is every single poll i've seen shows more optimism about the economy than there was a month ago. not people aren't off the charts mind you, but a third of the people think the economy is in good shape. another 20% think it's getting in better shape and those are better numbers than the summer. >> rose: let me ask about florida, john harris, and pennsylvania. >> it looks like florida is most likely in romney's camp. not certain. it seems to me that if obama wins florida he's going to win a bunch of other states and we'll have a map that looks more like 2008 than we've been thinking this last month or so where hi would win most of the state he is won in 2008 minus north carolina and indiana. that's an early night for us all. althoughs pennsylvania better than i do. i don't think it's been awe thenltally in play. i think there was a series of head fakes going on but that's never been a central battground. >> rose: mark?
iowand nevada have been put away. i don't think new hampshire and wisconsin have. but i think that's reflect in that poll. the second that's occurred is every single poll i've seen shows more optimism about the economy than there was a month ago. not people aren't off the charts mind you, but a third of the people think the economy is in good shape. another 20% think it's getting in better shape and those are better numbers than the summer. >> rose: let me ask about florida, john harris,...
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Nov 5, 2012
11/12
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i know it takes iowa and nevada. here it is. there it is. >> iowa, nevada have to get in there and we've got five more somewhere else. it's the swap of colorado. is it that? well. >> where do you have new hampshire? i can't see from here? >> we'll have to figure it out. it was off. this is what happens when we're missing it. the math is there. >> we'll take a break, we know it's there, the math is there. 269/269s. >> that's a nightmare. >> some say we'll be spending a lot of good times. >> here it is. that's what we're missing here. new hampshire over to there. >> new hampshire. >> and then we have it. >> thank you so much, chuck. >> bye now. >> chuck and the magic map. up next, mayor antonio villaraigosa in florida today, and house majority leader eric cantor from virginia, live from democracy plaza only here on msnbc. [ female announcer ] the humana walmart-preferred rx plan p-d-p gives you a low national plan premium... so you can focus on what really matters. call humana at 1-800-808-4003. colin powell: yes. when he took ove
i know it takes iowa and nevada. here it is. there it is. >> iowa, nevada have to get in there and we've got five more somewhere else. it's the swap of colorado. is it that? well. >> where do you have new hampshire? i can't see from here? >> we'll have to figure it out. it was off. this is what happens when we're missing it. the math is there. >> we'll take a break, we know it's there, the math is there. 269/269s. >> that's a nightmare. >> some say we'll be...
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Nov 5, 2012
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>> wisconsin or nevada. i know that nevada is going to be very close, the democrats have got even about the base number that they need for a lead in early voting, but republican enthusiasm as am in the cow counties is high. it's going to be a narrow victory for either side. i think the most likely is nevada and wisconsin. bill: what is the likely scenario for the president? he's going to three different states today. he's at 201, okay. so if he were to go to wisconsin, ohio, and iowa just today, so give him wisconsin, iowa, and the state of ohio, he's at 237. so on the remaining map here you see these strategies in the final moments now and where they pick and where they go and the reasons why. say the president were to pick pennsylvania, he's at 255. and so now at this moment based on this scenario and all the polling we have seen maybe he takes michigan. that would be enough to get him to 271. >> this shows the centrality of ohio. i don't think he's going to carry ohio. i've been food link on th7,000 democ
>> wisconsin or nevada. i know that nevada is going to be very close, the democrats have got even about the base number that they need for a lead in early voting, but republican enthusiasm as am in the cow counties is high. it's going to be a narrow victory for either side. i think the most likely is nevada and wisconsin. bill: what is the likely scenario for the president? he's going to three different states today. he's at 201, okay. so if he were to go to wisconsin, ohio, and iowa just...